Electricity supply security outlook improves

National electricity utility NamPower says the electricity supply security outlook for Namibia has been improved by the prospect of renewable energy projects taking over some of the strain when current power purchase agreements come to an end.

According to senior systems planning engineer Kudumo Siremo, there can be no beating around the bush: “We need capacity. We need to expand generation and transmission, and we need to get an energy mix which costs the least,” he insisted.

Counterintuitively for a desert country, Namibia generates most of its power from the Ruacana hydroelectric plant - which is responsible for up to 347 megwatts (MW) on a good day. NamPower also gets electricity from 20MW installed solar capacity, Anixas diesel’s 22.5MW and 30MW from the coal-fired Van Eck Power Station, as needed. Independent power producers include InnoSun with 4.5MW solar, the 37MW Hardap Solar PV Project, 20MW solar from GreenNam, and altogether 70MW from various REFIT projects. Another independent 20MW solar project, expected this year, will bring total local installed capacity to 621MW, though many plants rarely produce to capacity.

Guided by the national energy policy, the independent power producers’ framework, the renewable energy policy and the national integrated resource plan, it was the implementation of the modified single buyer model from 2019 which really changed the Namibian electricity supply landscape. While the renewable energy policy calls for 70% reliance on renewable resources by 2030, the integrated resource plan aims for 80% self-sufficiency by 2028.

To make up the current shortfalls, NamPower imports power through power purchase agreements with Eskom from South Africa, Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) and Zesco from Zambia. The Eskom agreement is for a 100MW firm supply, with an additional 300MW when available, and could end in 2025 - or be extended to 2027.

The ZPC contract ends next year and is for 80MW at a 50% capacity factor. With Zesco, one contract ending in 2027 provides 80MW and requires a 92.5% uptake, while a second contract lasts until 2030 for 100MW with 70% minimum uptake.

According to Siremo, NamPower’s own REFIT projects and developments from various independent power producers will go online before the Zimbabwean supply phases out.

NamPower's 20MW Omburu solar PV plant provided more than 100 hours of energy between commissioning in March 2022 and 7 November 2023. At a cost of about N$340 million, the plant built by HopSol Africa and Tulive Private Equity “has not disappointed us”, Siremo said.

Meanwhile, battery energy storage for 58MW or 60MW is set to be installed at Omburu by next year. The Arixas II diesel-powered 50MW plant is also expected to go online this year, with diamond miner Namdeb’s 50MW wind-powered plant expected to take load from 2025, and NamPower’s own 100MW solar farm also hopefully operational next year.