Promised universal electricity access delayed

The Namibian promise of providing access to electricity to everyone by 2030 has been deferred to 2040, with the mammoth task proving just too big and expensive to complete in the coming five years. This reality was confirmed last week at an electricity supply industry forum held in Otjiwarongo.

The event was held under the theme: ‘Delivering the promise: Using smart solutions in an AI-driven environment to improve electricity access, affordability and utilities'.

Abraham Hangula, deputy director for energy planning and research in the ministry of mines and energy, spoke at the event and tried to put the promise into perspective. Even to reach the goal of universal access to electricity by 2040 is still a huge undertaking, he said.

With about half of Namibian households connected to electricity supply by 2020, and taking into consideration population and demand growth since then, he estimated that the country will have to achieve 610 000 new connections to get everyone’s lights turned on. “We need to do 33 000 connections per annum. Our data shows that we currently connect between 2 000 and 4 000 a year, but we are using a manual outdated data system, and there is no data ecosystem, so we may be connecting between 7 000 to 8 000 a year,” he said.



Robust evidence

Over the weekend, the ministry of mines and energy announced a comprehensive national energy and affordability study which started on 7 October and will end on 11 November. The study is being done in collaboration with the World Bank and is being carried out countrywide to secure a robust evidence base upon which policies and programmes aimed a poverty reduction and expanding universal access to energy can be based.

Assessments will include household surveys to determine affordability of energy access at the household level, and community and public institution surveys, which will also provide details about schools and health facility access to electricity. Enterprise surveys will evaluate electricity access in manufacturing, service and agro-processing businesses, while an off-grid solar market assessment will give insight to supply and demand dynamics in the off-grid solar market.

Field team members are identifiable through name tags and identifying letters which spell out their roles and the purpose of the exercise. Selected households are urged to participate and help ensure that the field teams can collect quality data by responding openly and honestly to questions asked.

However, the lack of data is not the biggest challenge standing in the way of achieving the promise. Low population density, high connection costs and very high income inequality all contribute to difficulties with delivering on the promise.

According to Hangula, total electrification of all Namibian households would cost N$13 billion. “We need N$900 million per annum to reach that goal,” he said.

One approach, which data and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) could help achieve, is to provide Namibians with different tiers of electricity connectivity, determined by their needs. Tier one connectivity would provide 22kWh for small households where there is no need for more electricity availability. “AI can help us identify those people,” he said. Tier two households would be connected to 224kWh supply, with tier three availed with 696kWh, 1 800kWh for tier four households, and tier five enjoying the maximum supply that the grid provides at 2 195kWh of electricity supply.

According to him, the capacity on the ground - to connect more households to the national grid - will have to be scaled up over the coming five years, also to tackle the national issue of connecting peri-urban households. Some informal settlements feature densely populated areas, while in others, inhabitants are more spaced out, which influences costs of connections. For these inhabitants, almost N$2 billion is needed to connect their homes to the national grid, he explained.



Nowhere close

For the coming 2025/2026 financial year, the government plans to connect some 8 700 households at an average cost op N$25 000 per connection. “We need more money just to reach those numbers. We are nowhere close to our goals,” he said.

He suggested that government pays for up to 75% of electrification costs, while regional electricity distributors cover 20% and end-users contribute the difference. However, over the next five years, that would mean that end-users have to come up with N$41 million.

Another solution may lie with off-grid electricity supply through solar. “Off-grid is really a game changer. The issue is how do we do it? We want to learn from countries that have done it, like Kenya,” he said.

At the same occasion the minister of mines and energy Tom Alweendo elaborated on the promise to electrify all structures in Namibia by 2040. “The challenge is two-fold. Firstly, we are not producing enough electricity and that gap is not being closed. Despite us producing more, the demand increases by the day,” he said.

Secondly, many Namibians cannot afford the electricity that is available. “The majority of Namibians who need electricity may not be in a position to afford the electricity produced by the independent power producers,” the minister said.

Furthermore, distribution infrastructure is needed to give access to electricity to those Namibians who need it. Even though Namibia’s complex grid network is ranked highly compared to neighbouring countries, it cannot provide the access needed the way it is today, he said.

Alweendo added that Namibia’s network is not effective to be able to give the access needed by 2040, “even if we produce enough”. Grid extension is not necessarily the solution, he said. “I am happy to hear the government suggesting off-grid [solutions] as our country is vast."