Maize price trends continue in southern Africa
Drought-reduced harvests have heightened import needs
The FAO's monthly report on food price trends states that this year's maize price increases are largely driven by the impact of the El Niño-induced drought on domestic food supplies.
Amid the start of the main agricultural season, prices of maize, a key food staple, continue to trend at high year-on-year levels across southern Africa in September and October.
This is according to the Food and Agricultural Organisation's (FAO) monthly report on food price trends, which largely reflects tight domestic supplies and currency depreciation, as well as strong export demand.
It said global wheat and maize prices continued to increase in October, influenced by unfavourable weather conditions in some main producing areas, transport disruptions and strong demand.
By contrast, international rice prices declined amid expectations of increased competition among exporters.
The report said staple food prices remained high year-on-year in parts of East Africa, southern Africa and South America due to tight domestic supplies, macroeconomic challenges and sustained demand.
“Early prospects for the 2025 crop appear favourable, based on a likely return of wetter weather conditions this season and a potential upturn in production that could provide a respite for cereal prices next year.”
New record
The report said in South Africa, wholesale prices of white and yellow maize grain continued to climb month-on-month in October 2024.
“The gap between the two varieties narrowed, as yellow maize prices rose more rapidly.”
However, it said while white maize prices reached a new record, yellow maize prices remained 10% below the all-time highs of November 2022.
“There are two key drivers supporting the elevated levels: a tight domestic supply following a weather-stricken harvest and robust export demand from regional neighbours, as drought-reduced 2024 harvests have heightened import needs.”
According to the report, wholesale wheat prices continued to fall in October, reflecting lower year-on-year prices on the international market and a continued strengthening of the national currency, given the country’s status as a net importer of wheat.
In Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia, which import the bulk of their grain needs, prices of maize meal (mostly made from white maize) remained relatively stable in September.
Pressure
The report said in the near term, maize prices are likely to remain under upward pressure, reflecting record price levels in South Africa.
In Zambia, after falling seasonally in preceding months, there was an uptick in maize grain prices in October, pushing prices up 27% year-on-year.
“Maize meal prices continued to rise and reached new record highs.”
It said the price growth in 2024 is largely fuelled by the impact of the El Niño-induced drought on domestic food supplies, a factor also underpinning elevated headline inflation rates.
The report said although there has been some stability in the value of the national currency against the United States dollar, there has been an incipient depreciation since mid-October that might heighten imported inflation.
This is according to the Food and Agricultural Organisation's (FAO) monthly report on food price trends, which largely reflects tight domestic supplies and currency depreciation, as well as strong export demand.
It said global wheat and maize prices continued to increase in October, influenced by unfavourable weather conditions in some main producing areas, transport disruptions and strong demand.
By contrast, international rice prices declined amid expectations of increased competition among exporters.
The report said staple food prices remained high year-on-year in parts of East Africa, southern Africa and South America due to tight domestic supplies, macroeconomic challenges and sustained demand.
“Early prospects for the 2025 crop appear favourable, based on a likely return of wetter weather conditions this season and a potential upturn in production that could provide a respite for cereal prices next year.”
New record
The report said in South Africa, wholesale prices of white and yellow maize grain continued to climb month-on-month in October 2024.
“The gap between the two varieties narrowed, as yellow maize prices rose more rapidly.”
However, it said while white maize prices reached a new record, yellow maize prices remained 10% below the all-time highs of November 2022.
“There are two key drivers supporting the elevated levels: a tight domestic supply following a weather-stricken harvest and robust export demand from regional neighbours, as drought-reduced 2024 harvests have heightened import needs.”
According to the report, wholesale wheat prices continued to fall in October, reflecting lower year-on-year prices on the international market and a continued strengthening of the national currency, given the country’s status as a net importer of wheat.
In Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia, which import the bulk of their grain needs, prices of maize meal (mostly made from white maize) remained relatively stable in September.
Pressure
The report said in the near term, maize prices are likely to remain under upward pressure, reflecting record price levels in South Africa.
In Zambia, after falling seasonally in preceding months, there was an uptick in maize grain prices in October, pushing prices up 27% year-on-year.
“Maize meal prices continued to rise and reached new record highs.”
It said the price growth in 2024 is largely fuelled by the impact of the El Niño-induced drought on domestic food supplies, a factor also underpinning elevated headline inflation rates.
The report said although there has been some stability in the value of the national currency against the United States dollar, there has been an incipient depreciation since mid-October that might heighten imported inflation.
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